- Baseball Handicapping Sites
- Handicapping Baseball Totals
- Handicapping Baseball Totals 2020
- Baseball Handicapping System
- Handicapping Baseball Totals 2019
TD and his team at Totals 4U make up the premier Over/Under sports handicappers in the nation. Professionally, the squad at T4U has been dedicated to producing profits on basketball, baseball, and football totals for 2 decades. Check out the homepage of your total experts at freeplays.com, join the team, and you too will raise TD´s battle cry. Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to name a few. Hockey, as we explain in. E-sports Starting soon. Red Star FC - Serendib SC. AmaZulu - Bloemfontein Celtic FC. 7 Days - All Sports Included. Only $125.00 - Click Here to Buy ↔ 2020 MLB Totals 22-18 ↔ 2020 NFL Totals 19-18 ↔ 2020 NCAAF Totals 7-14.
Most Major League Baseball bettors take a quick look at the standings, compare the starting pitchers, and make a bet. Sometimes MLB bettors just bet on their favorite team. This is the extent of their handicapping. Of course, most MLB bettors lose, so you definitely don’t want to do what they do.
Here are five advanced MLB handicapping strategies that I use. It’s going to take some extra work to get up to speed on these strategies, but in the long run, they’re going to help you make more profitable baseball bets.
1 – Strikeout Percentages
When a batter strikes out, he doesn’t have any chance to help his team. He can’t move a runner over, hit a sacrifice fly, or create a positive situation for his team. The only upside to a batter striking out is if he didn’t hit into a double play.
On the other side of the equation, the only thing better for a pitcher to create than a strikeout is a double play. When a pitcher strikes out a batter, he gets one of the three outs he needs to get out of the inning, keeps the offense from improving their chance of scoring, and creates an advantage for his team.
These are both reasons why I track strikeout percentages for hitters and pitchers when I’m handicapping Major League Baseball games. Here’s exactly how I do it.
For batters, I divide total strikeouts by total plate appearance. Plate appearances include hits, base on balls, outs, hit by pitch, and sacrifices.
For pitchers, I divide strikeouts by total batters faced. The lazy way to do this is to track strikeouts per nine innings pitched for pitchers, but this can be misleading. I want to be able to compare overall numbers when I’m comparing pitchers. Strikeouts per nine innings pitched can be high even when a pitcher gives up a bunch of hits and walks.
When you track strikeout percentages for both batters and pitchers this way, you get a true comparison between players and teams. This is useful in any MLB handicapping situation.
2 – Ground Ball Percentages
Ground balls are usually good for the pitcher. While some ground balls go for hits, some of them also get turned into double plays. Ground ball hits and double plays come close to balancing each other out, so when you track ground ball percentages, it gives you a good metric for handicapping purposes.
You track ground ball percentages the same way you track strikeout percentages. For batters, you divide the total number of ground balls by total plate appearances. For pitchers, you divide the total number of ground balls by total batters faced.
A pitcher with a high ground ball percentage facing a team with several ground ball hitters in the lineup has a good chance of turning in a good performance. This is also helpful when betting the over or under line.
On the other hand, a pitcher with a low ground ball percentage facing a team filled with low ground ball percentage hitters might be in for a rough night.
You can’t look at strikeout percentages and ground ball percentages in a vacuum. The information is valuable for both of these percentages, but you have to keep it in context for it to be more valuable. Some pitchers are able to do well while getting few ground balls. They might have high strikeout totals and get a lot of pop ups.
Some hitters strike out at a high percentage of the time, but are still dangerous because a high percentage of the balls they put in play produce runs. You can’t look at any single thing when handicapping MLB games and make profitable bets. You have to use a combination of these factors to place winning baseball bets.
3 – Extra Base Hit Percentages
Extra base hits either score runs immediately or place a runner or runners in scoring position. This is why extra base hits should be valued much higher than singles and walks. And just like the last two sections, you should track extra base hit percentages for hitters and pitchers.
For pitchers, divide the sum of all doubles, triples, and home runs by total batters faced.
The truth is that a home run is worth considerably more than a double. And it’s also valuable to track home run percentages by batters and pitchers. But I’ve found that tracking extra base hit percentages is a better way for me to use these statistics in my handicapping than tracking home runs separately.
The best pitchers limit the number of extra base hits they give up. They might give up some singles and walks, but they restrain the damage by limiting extra base hits. It’s much harder for an offense to score by stringing two or three hits together than to score as a result of an extra base hit.
4 – Manager Tendencies
Every MLB manager has certain tendencies. Some of them stick with slumping players longer than others, and some pull pitchers faster than others. When you’re handicapping games, it’s helpful to know the tendencies of each manager in the game.
The first thing I look at is how fast the manager goes to the bullpen. This is valuable because I can use information I have about how deep the starting pitcher is likely to go in the game and which bullpen pitchers are likely to see action in the game and which ones aren’t.
A starting pitcher that usually goes seven innings with a manager that trusts him is usually going to get the game to the back end of the bullpen. On the other hand, a young pitcher with a manager who pulls pitchers quickly means that the long relievers are most likely going to be needed.
It’s also useful to know which managers like to steal bases and which ones like to use the hit and run. In the National League you see a lot of double switches, so knowing how an NL manager handles these, and who he has on his bench, helps you handicap games.
The new relief pitcher rule MLB put into place in the 2020 season to speed up games is something you need to be aware of. The new rule states that any pitcher brought into the game in relief has to face at least three batters unless he gets hurt or reaches the end of an inning.
I’m looking forward to seeing how each manager handles the new rule. One area where the new rule might be quite profitable for smart bettors is in-game betting. This rule gives the offense an advantage because the offense can pinch hit for a favorable matchup. Look for profitable in-game betting opportunities early in the season.
5 – Bullpen Usage and Availability
It’s important to understand how each team uses it’s bullpen on a game-by-game basis and over the course of the season. You also need to know which relief pitchers are available each day and which ones are being rested.
Most managers only use a relief pitcher two days in a row before giving him a day off. Some will use a key guy three days in a row, but the performance is usually lacking on the third day, so this can be useful as well.
The best way to learn which bullpen arms are available and which ones are getting rest is to read the local beat writers for the teams. Some teams have beat writers who are active on Twitter, and this can be a good source of information.
Baseball Handicapping Sites
This goes along with the manager tendencies from the last section, but you need to know how each manager deals with tired and struggling pitchers. A manager with a quick hook tends to wear down his bullpen over the course of a season, and put too many below average pitchers in the game on a regular basis.
A manager with a slow hook tends to have his best bullpen arms available when he needs them, but he also gives some games away by sticking with his starters too long. This isn’t as common as it used to be because MLB teams are using analytics more. Analytics show that a pitcher’s performance drops a great deal on the third trip through the opposing lineup, so managers are pulling starters faster.
MLB teams are also using 12 and 13-man bullpens more often, so they have more fresh arms every day. The way teams are using pitchers and their pitching staffs is changing, and if you want to be a winning MLB bettor, you need to change along with them.
Conclusion
Start using these five advanced MLB handicapping strategies when you’re evaluating games. Tracking strikeout and ground ball percentages is something that almost no one is doing, so it can give you a quick advantage.
Handicapping Baseball Totals
Most baseball bettors are focused on home runs, so they miss the importance of doubles and triples. Use extra base hit percentages to factor in every hit that isn’t a single to get an advantage. Learning more about manager tendencies and how teams are using their bullpens is also important if you want to win more baseball bets.
Baseball Betting On Team Totals – Don’t Forget the Juice
The problem with Team Totals is the same problem that all proposition bets have, the ‘juice’ or commission charged on them is higher than on the main betting lines. Most books will charge -115 (wager $115 to win $100) to bet Team Totals, whereas Pinnacle prices Team Totals at -108 (wager $108 to win $100).
Although this is a significant saving, there is generally not enough action for books to deal the line as sharp as they would a total or a runline, and even the Pinnacle book only offers them for $2,000 per bet.
The key here is that Team Totals are closer to a main betting line than they are to a proposition bet, but they are not a true main line. When you have to pay -115 (1.87) it makes it tough to win, but it can still be done. The key is to make sure you’re getting a good number, and you have two weapons on your side:
- You’re giving this line a lot more attention than the book probably is
- Many books and players don’t understand what team totals are worth
Common Mistake In Calculating Team Totals
Handicapping Baseball Totals 2020
The instinctual answer for Team Totals is that they should add up to the total for the game, but this answer is incorrect. If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, you could safely bet the game to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That’s the way runs are distributed. It’s possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it’s impossible to score less than 0.
Baseball Handicapping System
OVER or UNDER?
If the two numbers add up to the total or higher, it’s safe to pay scary looking juice to go under the Team Totals. If they add up to a half run less than the total, it’s usually all right to go under as long as the combined juice is small. Read our simple guide How to calculate betting marginsto make sure you know what your bookmaker is charging you. If you actively like the under that makes these plays that much easier, and with experience you can learn to spot which line is in error.
At most bookmakers it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because unsophisticated bettors tend to go Over not realizing that the numbers don’t add up the natural way.
Going Over is harder, and there are many books where it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because recreational players or ‘squares’ tend to go over not realizing that the numbers don’t add up the natural way.
Squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they’d like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.
Pinnacle has much sharper players and far lower juice, making it far more common for an over on a Team Total to have value. Once again, a safe and effective way to know what Team Totals should look like is the same method recommended for runlines; look at the Team Totals in other games and they should look similar in this one.
This may sound like extra work, but you are teaching yourself to recognize value in the process and can hone in on areas where the Pinny Lean deviates from the market number, which presents another opportunity to make money.
Handicapping Baseball Totals 2019
Soft Lines
Team Totals like Runlines fluctuate in relation to the Moneyline and Total, but unlike Runlines many books do not link them as carefully and might even trade them completely independently.
Team totals fluctuate in relation to the moneyline and total, but unlike runlines many bookmakers do not link them. Therefore, if there is a large ‘steam’ move on a main betting line, check whether the Team Totals have been updated.
Therefore, if there is a large ‘steam’ move on a main betting line; check whether the Team Totals have been updated. If you’ve never checked that particular Team Total at your sports book, compare it to the odds at Pinnacle or against your own chart or similar games.
The success rate on this is larger than you might expect, and sometimes you can even find a line that has gone in the opposite direction to the main lines.
If someone bets the mathematically incorrect side of a Team Total, especially if this happens twice, the chances are that this will move the line and cause it to offer value.
Even at Pinnacle we can’t be sure that we have the best of it, especially when the person betting is sharp, so often we have to move the line and offer what we think is likely to be value. While the under is more likely to offer you value on a game where you don’t particularly like your side – especially if you’re playing at another bookmaker than Pinnacle – the over is where you can have vastly the best of it in the right spot. It’s never a sure thing that a pitcher will get it done. Every now and then, it’s “Lima Time”.
Sometimes a pitcher is hurt or just plain can’t cut it in the majors. In those spots, the over on the other Team Total can be a monster favorite, much more than the over or the other team. The extra juice is a good reason to be cautious, but Team Totals are an excellent way both to find value and to bet on exactly what you like and nothing you don’t.
Ready to turn knowledge into betting profits? Magnify your edge by reading our popular article First five innings baseball betting strategies!